Ryan Wilson: Evaluating Player Output Against Role They Are In Evaluating Player Output Against Role They Are In

Fist

Great more dumb charts that you can cherry pick your stats arguments with. BORING!

If I'm reading that right Karlson is getting a lot of offensive zone starts, which he takes full advantage of.

Question is, why wouldn't you do that if you were the coach rather than force him to be more a defensive type? Play to the strengths of the players.

I'm more of a Letang/Keith type of guy but Karlsson is very good.

The best IMO in no particular order:

Doughty - Letang
Karlsson - Keith
Subban - Weber

Honorable mentions:

Burns - Hedman
Suter.

I'm more of a Letang/Keith type of guy but Karlsson is very good.

The best IMO in no particular order:

Doughty - Letang
Karlsson - Keith
Subban - Weber

Honorable mentions:

Burns - Hedman
Suter.
- Barnaby36

keith and weber ahead of hedman...?

keith and weber ahead of hedman...?

- martox

This is just my opinion lol Hedman is on my list though. He'll get even better fairly soon.

I have always thought about this that I feel sad seeing great players being stuck in bad team (for now) like oliver ekman larson in arizona. he is a extremly good player and people don't give him enough credit cuz he is stuck with a bad team. there alot more of these exampels around the league. So I thought why not implement some kind of loan function like in soccer (football is the real name ) here in europe. so arizona can loan out ekman to a better team for 1 year where he can develop and win alot for a year. like loaning out ekman to pittsburgh for a 2nd for 1 year or something like that. the cap is where I am in a bind at. do arizona keep the cap hit?.

The problem I have with information like this is that it tries to evaluate actions in a vacuum as opposed to looking at their tangible effect on the game, take primary points per 60 minutes which was used in this evaluation, it operates under the assumption that the primary assist is always more important to the goal being scored and that the secondary assist is irrelevant which in reality isn't always the case, sometimes/often the secondary assist is the play that creates the scoring opportunity.

Another example of this is high-danger sv%, it quantifies the danger of the shot by the location the shot was taken from and not the actual quality of the shot attempt. Unfortunately in reality a rocket one-timer from the point through traffic targeted at the top corner is a much more dangerous shot attempt than a weak unobstructed wrist from the slot that was shot directly into the goalies chest but high-danger sv% tells you that isn't true.

Hockey isn't played in a vacuum and not all hockey plays are equal so any data that only holds true in a vacuum doesn't paint a realistic picture of the game.

I have always thought about this that I feel sad seeing great players being stuck in bad team (for now) like oliver ekman larson in arizona. he is a extremly good player and people don't give him enough credit cuz he is stuck with a bad team. there alot more of these exampels around the league. So I thought why not implement some kind of loan function like in soccer (football is the real name ) here in europe. so arizona can loan out ekman to a better team for 1 year where he can develop and win alot for a year. like loaning out ekman to pittsburgh for a 2nd for 1 year or something like that. the cap is where I am in a bind at. do arizona keep the cap hit?.
- martox

The problem with this is the volume of options, football(soccer) has a plethora of high-level professional leagues around the world that gives organizations option to lend players out without lending those players to team that are competing in the same league they are competing in. Correct me if I'm wrong because I don't follow football(soccer) that closely and don't know much outside of the English Premier league but it wouldn't be common for Sunderland or Southhampton to loan players to Chelsea or Man U but instead would lend players to top teams in top leagues in Span. Germany or Sweden as opposed to lending them to a top team in their own league. If there were other viable professional hockey leagues I think this would make a lot of sense but I don't see it making sense to lend players to another team player in the same league.

Yawn

The problem with this is the volume of options, football(soccer) has a plethora of high-level professional leagues around the world that gives organizations option to lend players out without lending those players to team that are competing in the same league they are competing in. Correct me if I'm wrong because I don't follow football(soccer) that closely and don't know much outside of the English Premier league but it wouldn't be common for Sunderland or Southhampton to loan players to Chelsea or Man U but instead would lend players to top teams in top leagues in Span. Germany or Sweden as opposed to lending them to a top team in their own league. If there were other viable professional hockey leagues I think this would make a lot of sense but I don't see it making sense to lend players to another team player in the same league.
- jaydogg1974

you are entirely right about that. I mean teams do loan their players to other teams in their own league but more often they loan to other leagues ye.

The problem I have with information like this is that it tries to evaluate actions in a vacuum as opposed to looking at their tangible effect on the game, take primary points per 60 minutes which was used in this evaluation, it operates under the assumption that the primary assist is always more important to the goal being scored and that the secondary assist is irrelevant which in reality isn't always the case, sometimes/often the secondary assist is the play that creates the scoring opportunity.

Another example of this is high-danger sv%, it quantifies the danger of the shot by the location the shot was taken from and not the actual quality of the shot attempt. Unfortunately in reality a rocket one-timer from the point through traffic targeted at the top corner is a much more dangerous shot attempt than a weak unobstructed wrist from the slot that was shot directly into the goalies chest but high-danger sv% tells you that isn't true.

Hockey isn't played in a vacuum and not all hockey plays are equal so any data that only holds true in a vacuum doesn't paint a realistic picture of the game.
- jaydogg1974

Right on with all of this. And it extends to zone starts. In the playoffs, Cullen's line certainly was tasked with defensive zone faceoffs. But in the regular season, 95% of the time lines were simply rolling one after the other. There's no more information about what "role" that player played than what we know about those players and lines minus the use of a statistic.

I have no problem with advanced stats when used in context - Corsi is a great way to determine shot differential, not "possession." Zone starts are a great way to determine zone starts, not "roles." The issue is that many acolytes of advanced stats want to believe that they are the Copernicus of hockey and everyone else is some kind of anti-Heliocentric Luddite, and they do so by blowing the meaning of these new statistics out of proportion.

Right on with all of this. And it extends to zone starts. In the playoffs, Cullen's line certainly was tasked with defensive zone faceoffs. But in the regular season, 95% of the time lines were simply rolling one after the other. There's no more information about what "role" that player played than what we know about those players and lines minus the use of a statistic.

I have no problem with advanced stats when used in context - Corsi is a great way to determine shot differential, not "possession." Zone starts are a great way to determine zone starts, not "roles." The issue is that many acolytes of advanced stats want to believe that they are the Copernicus of hockey and everyone else is some kind of anti-Heliocentric Luddite, and they do so by blowing the meaning of these new statistics out of proportion.
- hardnosed

My favorite part about using zone starts to determine role is that it only measures a small portion of the game, 70%-80% of line changes occur on the fly so when evaluating a zone start your actually only using data from 20%-30% of the available data. If a line, say Cullen's line, sees 25 shifts in a game, 6 of those start from a Dzone faceoff, 3 from a Ozone faceoff and the other 16 happen on the fly are we really determining how that line is being used.

Man we are dead during the summer huh? Vesey sweepstakes over, roster basically near set already. Only changes could be a 4th line winger and or bottom pairing Dman without someone unexpected occurring.

Zzzzzzzzz.....zzzzz......zzzzz.

On a different note a dude that plays roller hockey with us broke his wrist in half today.....pretty gruesome.


Yeah I'm that bored.

Man we are dead during the summer huh? Vesey sweepstakes over, roster basically near set already. Only changes could be a 4th line winger and or bottom pairing Dman without someone unexpected occurring.
- Guile

Not that we need any of them but I was looking at the remaining UFA and there are some OK names out there:

Tanguay, Fleischmann, Boyes, Korpikoski, D.Jones, D.Moore, Legwand, Umberger, Gomez, Stoll, Hodgson, Elias, Prust, Downie, Gaustad, M.Richards, Tlusty, T.Ruutu...

One of them could be helpfull on a 4th or 3rd line role but AGAIN: we don't need any of them.

The problem I have with information like this is that it tries to evaluate actions in a vacuum as opposed to looking at their tangible effect on the game, take primary points per 60 minutes which was used in this evaluation, it operates under the assumption that the primary assist is always more important to the goal being scored and that the secondary assist is irrelevant which in reality isn't always the case, sometimes/often the secondary assist is the play that creates the scoring opportunity.

Another example of this is high-danger sv%, it quantifies the danger of the shot by the location the shot was taken from and not the actual quality of the shot attempt. Unfortunately in reality a rocket one-timer from the point through traffic targeted at the top corner is a much more dangerous shot attempt than a weak unobstructed wrist from the slot that was shot directly into the goalies chest but high-danger sv% tells you that isn't true.

Hockey isn't played in a vacuum and not all hockey plays are equal so any data that only holds true in a vacuum doesn't paint a realistic picture of the game.
- jaydogg1974

Just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean that it isn't useful. No-one thinks that these metrics are the be all and end all. If you have something that can better quantify hockey objectively than the various collections of metrics feel free to post it.

No-one thinks that these metrics are the be all and end all.
- cygnus41

The charts are typically presented in a vacuum - charts and nothing else. That's making something the be-all and end-all, like believing that Daley was terrible based on stats, or Tanner current arguing that David Rundblad is awesome based on his Corsi (yes, really).

Not that we need any of them but I was looking at the remaining UFA and there are some OK names out there:

Tanguay, Fleischmann, Boyes, Korpikoski, D.Jones, D.Moore, Legwand, Umberger, Gomez, Stoll, Hodgson, Elias, Prust, Downie, Gaustad, M.Richards, Tlusty, T.Ruutu...

One of them could be helpfull on a 4th or 3rd line role but AGAIN: we don't need any of them.
- Barnaby36

That look better than some of the rosters I've seen for Vegas

Tanguay Fleischman Tlusty
Elias Legwand Boyes
Gaustad Stoll Ruutu
Prust Moore Korpikoski

That look better than some of the rosters I've seen for Vegas

Tanguay Fleischman Tlusty
Elias Legwand Boyes
Gaustad Stoll Ruutu
Prust Moore Korpikoski
- TheGame316

Truth be told: all of those guys are past their prime. Some are interesting to fill a 13 men roster.

@The Game:

Those are four fourth lines. Vegas won't be that good but certainly not that bad.